Resources drag market lower than expected, says ADP) –
– Retail inventory is expected to rebound in October and November, from its low of 6.9 million units in November 2013. The manufacturing index is expected to rise to 52.5 in December, down from 60.3 the month before, and retail sales volume will improve in October after reaching a two-year low. (Yellen’s $45.1 billion speech on Wall Street was an indication that inflation will come back down) –
– Retail inflation will rise to 6.4 percent this year, up from 5.4 percent last year, following the weaker than expected holiday shopping season. (Wider-based retail spending is expected to surge this year, with online purchases, gas, groceries and apparel all rising.) –
-Consumer confidence is on the mend, with unemployment at its lowest level in 16 months. (It is currently 5.7 percent – down from 5.9 percent in October.) The housing sector continues to be strong, with the average price of homes selling for the third consecutive month, as well as a robust U.S. eco??nomy.
-Wages co?????ntinue to rise faster than inflation, partly as a result of better productivity growth, particularly in manufacturing and education. (This year the average hourly pay for a male worker has risen 2.6 percent, from $23.84 in the first quarter to $24.40 in the second quarter.) This was also the highest growth rate in three years. (Read more)
-Economies in Europe continue to head for a softer first quarter. (A stronger economic expansion has driven the eurozone to its longest expansion in a decade, even while other countries have shrunk from their pre-crisis growth rate.)
-The U.S. is beginning to recover its manufacturing momentum, with new orders expected to expand by 3 percent in October. (This is the strongest one-month increase in four years.) (See: Manufacturing jobs rose at the fastest rate in three quarters, but inflation still too low) –
-The inflation report from the Fed, which was downgraded by the central bank’s head earlier this month, could be an early sign that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy after the December meeting, but some analysts have questioned whether t??? ???he Fed would consider a rate cut in the near term.
All of these are positive signs from the Fed.
But if the Fed sees these trends going against it (or indeed if you’re an investor and th